Weather Forecast Monday 3-29-2010

Strong storms will continue to pound on the east coast through the morning, but most of these storms will start to push out into the Atlantic by afternoon. High pressure takes control of the weather through the Plains States, making for a nice afternoon and plenty of sunshine.

A new storm starting to take shape in the north Pacific will start to impace the Pacific Northwest, with coastal rain and mountain snow.

Tuesday will be active for the Northeast and Northwest! A strong low pressure system will bring high winds and heavy rains to NYC and much of the New England States.

More rain and mountain snow is likely West of the Rocky Mountains.

High fire danger is expected across Texas and much of the South Plains as very dry air and high winds set up.

As the storm on the West Coast moves east late in the week, it is now becoming more evident that a severe weather outbreak will take place across parts of Texas and Oklahoma on Friday as the storm clashes with moisture streaming NW of the Gulf of Mexico.

Active weather is expected east of the Mississippi over the holiday weekend. However, sunny skies will return to the Central United States on Saturday and Sunday.

Weather Forecast - March 23, 2010

Two storms are of interest today. One is kicking off the coast of NY into the Atlantic. The other, is spinning out of the Rocky Mountains onto the Plains.

The first storm will bring more rain to the New England States and maybe some high elevation snow. It appears that the the best chance for snow will be associated with the second storm. Colorado into New Mexico will see the best chance of significant snowfall today. Rain will be possible over southern New Mexico and perhaps far West Texas by late in the day.

Another warm day is expected across West Texas this afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the 80's across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos. Highs will reach into the 90's across the Big Bend. Winds will be out of the Southwest at 10-15mph for most. However, some spots near the Davis Mountains and Lower Trans Pecos could see winds slightly stronger than the rest of the area.

Overnight... Temps will fall to around 40 under partly cloudy skies.

A Pacific Cold Front will move into the region on Wednesday afternoon. This will stall temps in the mid to upper 60's across much of the region. There will also be a chance of thunderstorms, mainly east of the Pecos River on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could be strong to severe over the eastern Permian Basin. Hail and high winds will be the primary threats.

Rain chances will linger into Thursday morning before exiting the area around lunchtime Thursday.

Thursday afternoon and beyond looks warmer with high's in the upper 70's to near 80 by Friday and Saturday. A large storm will impact the region on Saturday but will produce more wind than rain. So weekend plans should be pushed to "early" Saturday if possible.

A cold front will drop temps into the 60's on Sunday.

Weather Forecast - Monday 3-22-10

The storm that brought wind and even a little wintry weather to West Texas on Saturday will push east of the Mississippi River today. This will bring rain to the Mid-Atlantic States and even a little snow to the Apellations.

Another storm will move into the Rocky Mountains today. Expect high elevation snow and wind. Rain will impact the Dakota's. This could possibly cause more flooding problems along the Red River.

High Pressure will take hold of the weather pattern across the South Plains today. Expect south winds from West Texas to Oklahoma. This will bring a return of moisture over the next 24 hours and will also bring warmer temperatures.

Tuesday will bring a few extra clouds to the South Plains. However, temperatures will likely remain warm across West Texas as a west wind remains in place. Temps in the 80's are likely.

On Wednesday, a strong Pacific cold front will move into the area. This will bring a chance of thunderstorms to West Texas. Some of these storms will be strong to severe, with hail and high winds being the primary threat. The greatest threat of severe weather on Wednesday will be east of hwy 385.

Rain will continue into Thursday morning, but will start to clear the area and move east on Thursday afternoon.

Friday will be much better. High's will climb back into the 70's under mostly sunny skies.

Saturday will be even warmer! Look for high's in the 80's.

A cold front will move into the region on Sunday bringing cooler temps and breezy winds to West Texas.

Weather Forecast Discussion 10-27-09

FORECAST DISCUSSION:
11:13 AM Oct. 27, 2009


SHORT TERM: LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN MY REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT FULL SUN TODAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS TODAY. WENT WITH MOSTLY 70'S ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN THE MTNS AND MARFA PLATEAU IN THE U60'S. KEPT BREEZY WORDING AS MOST MSLP PROGS SUGGEST ATLEAST GUSTY WINDS IF NOT HIGHER. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH STRONGER WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SFC MOISTURE. THINK THAT MOS HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH BOTH MAV AND WRF TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE 50 MARK.

LONG TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND VEER SW IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SUN WILL HOLD OUT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING... THIS COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS. STUCK CLOSE TO THE 00ZNAM. HOWEVER, THE 12ZNAM SHOWS IN INCREASE IN MOS DATA. (L80'S). IF THIS TRENDING CONTINUES... EVENING SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP HIGH'S UP A NOTCH. HIGH FIRE DANGER ALSO APPEARS LIKELY ATLEAST OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.

THURSDAY STILL LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE... MOST MODELS NOW AGREE ON A H5 SOLUTION KEEPING THE UPPER LOW CLOSED WITH SLOWER PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE.... TIMING ISSUES STILL REMAIN WRT SFC TROUGH/PACIFIC FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG H7 FLOW PROGGED BEHIND THE FRONT... WILL OPT TO GO WITH A FASTER FROPA. STILL THINK THAT STORMS COULD FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDRY. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG UPPER WINDS... STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY RACE OFF TO THE ENE AND STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND LINIAR. HOWEVER, SHOULD A STORM BECOME DISCRETE.. A FAST-MOVING SFC BASED SUPERCELL ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLY THURSDAY... ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN CLOSER TO THE BEST UA DYNAMICS. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH... WINDS FROM THE SFC TO SFC TO 850MB WILL VEER MORE NORTH ALLOWING FOR STRONG CAA. AGAIN... I'M ON THE FENCE AS TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. I FAVOR THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE NW COUNTIES. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE MODELS CONSISTANTLY HAVE BROUGHT IN THE COLDER mP AIR. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12ZNAM IS NOW SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE COLD AIR, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT/ FRIDAY MORNING. IF THIS VARIFIES... COULD SEE WINTER WEATHER IMPACT A LARGER PART OF THE CWA. AS IT STANDS... MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN EAST BY INITIAL FROPA... LEAVING VERY LITTLE TO WORK WITH, SO WILL DOWNPLAY POPS. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW IS OF CONCERN. A WISE METEOROLOGIST ONCE TOLD ME THAT IF A STORM IS STRONG ENOUGH... IT WILL FIND THE MOISTURE. WITH THIS THINKING IN MIND... WILL LEAVE LOW END POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN. BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT LOCATIONS ABOVE 6000'. AGAIN, ATTENTION SHOULD BE PAID TO THE LATEST NAM WHICH CLOSELY RESEMBLES WHAT THE UKMET WAS KICKING OUT YESTERDAY. TEMPS FROM H85 UP ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS SUCH, SNOW OR ATLEAST A WINTRY MIX APPEARS POSSIBLE. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT NAM MOS SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POPS. WILL CARRY A VERBAL MENTION OF THIS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPS ARE ALSO A CONCERN... MODELS CARRY OV SKIES THUR NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. HOWEVER, SHOULD EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR AND PRECIP DOESN'T PAN OUT... TEMPS COULD EASILY REACH THE FREEZING MARK NORTH OF I-20. THIS TOO SHOULD BE WATCHED AND REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL TEMP VARIFICATION... WILL ADVISE RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO TAKE FREEZE PRECAUTIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

STORM SYSTEM FINALLY LOOKS TO OPEN UP ON FRIDAY AND A QUICK EJECTION TO THE EAST SHOULD OCCUR. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND WHAT TYPE... WILL MAKE OR BREAK FRIDAYS TEMPS. THINK THAT MOS IS WAY TOO HIGH ATTM. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW MEX AND NWS OFFERINGS. IF THE 12ZNAM IS TO BE BELIEVED... HIGHS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50'S. WILL SETTLE ON LWR 60'S FOR THIS FORECAST, BUT WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED IF THE THE NAM IS ON IT... ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 12ZGFS IS TRENDING COOLER AT H85 TOO.

FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THUS, WARMER TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.



FIRE WEATHER: FIRE DANGER APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA ON WED WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT... LOOKING FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS. 20' WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE 20MPH AND Td ARE QUESTIONABLE... ATLEAST OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THUS, RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THINK MAF WILL DO A GOOD JOB WITH THIS, AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR LEAD.

TROPICS: N/A

CLOUD COVER
TUE: S WED: I/C THUR: M/C FRI: D/C SAT: S SUN: S MON: S

TEMPS
TUE: XX/72 WED: 50/78 THUR: 48/53 FRI: 34/63 SAT: 39/74 SUN: 45/75 MON: 47/73

MORGAN

Weather Forecast Discussion 10-26-09

FORECAST DISCUSSION:
10:05 AM Oct. 26, 2009


SHORT TERM: COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS COLD FRONT SURGES SE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED THIS MORNING CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE 20'S AND 30'S ACROSS WEST TEXAS. RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS WELL. 7AM OBS SHOW SNOW AT RUIDOSO AND SANTA FE, SO SKI REPORTS SHOULD START TO LOOK GOOD IN THE NEXT 30 DAYS. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT COLD DOME TO REMAIN AND AS SUCH, CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY RESIDE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HAVE OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO THE COLDER WRF MOS GUIDNCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGH'S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. THINK THAT THE CLOUD DECK WILL START TO BREAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ANY CASE... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE MARFA PLATEAU AND DAVIS MTNS. THIS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD CALL. WRF MOS IS SUGGESTIVE OF UPPER TEENS/LWR 20'S AT KMRF TONIGHT. THUS A KILLING FREEZE IS EXPECTED AND HAVE ADVISED RESIDENTS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA TO BRING IN PLANTS AND PETS AND INSULATE PIPES. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD, IT DOESN'T APPEAR LIKELY THAT A KILLING FREEZE WILL IMPACT THE PERMIAN BASIN. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WRF MOS SHOWS LOWS IN THE MID 30'S AT KGNC AND KINK. THESE AREAS SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY BY EVENING SHIFT AS MODELS OFTEN MISS THE FULL IMPACT OF SUCH RADIATIONAL EVENTS. WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED TO SEE LOWS DIP TO 32-33 ACROSS LEA AND GAINES COUNTIES.

LONG TERM: WARMER TEMPS ON TAP TUE AND WED AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND SFC LOW OVER THE CNTL PLAINS STRENGTHENS. THIS SHOULD FORCE SFC TO 700MB WINDS TO VEER WRLY AND DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL GET UNDERWAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70'S AND 80'S BOTH DAYS. THINK THAT THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AT THE SFC AND STRONGER H7 FLOW WILL MIX TO THE SFC BOTH DAYS. HAVE INTRODUCED BREEZY WORDING ON TUE AND WINDY WORDING ON WED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

BY WEDNESDAY... VIGAROUS UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS. USED THE WRF MODEL FOR THIS AS IT SEEMS TO BE DOING A GREAT JOB WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE. WRF H3 PROGS SHOW A STOUT 170-180KT 300MB JET DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE INDICATING IT WILL BE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE GFS IS ALSO MUCH SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY'S RUN SUPPORTING THIS THINKING. SFC PROGS SHOW PACIFIC COLD FRONT NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY 12ZTHUR. THINK THAT RAPID MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND WITH STRONG DIVERGNCE ALOFT, WOULDN'T BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE A SQUALL LINE DEVELOP OVER THE CNTL AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF UPPER FLOW SUGGESTS RAPIDLY MOVING CELLS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS. THUS, DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE. SPC HAS DRAWN IN A 5% HATCHED AREA OVER MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THINK AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE SEEN IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BEHIND THE FRONT... IT IS TOUGH TO SAY WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO TEMP PROFILES. THE PACIFC NATURE OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT THE AIRMASS MIGHT NOT BE AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER, WRF AND ECMWF H85 PROGS SHOW A VERY COLD AIR MASS WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM -2 TO 3-4c RESPECTIVELY OVER OUR AREA. THE UKMET IS EVEN COLDER WITH THIS AIRMASS SHOWING SOME OF THE H85 AIR IN THE -6TO-7RANGE OVER THE WNW COUNTIES. TAKING ALL OF THIS INTO ACCOUNT, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP WITH A MUCH COLDER FORECAST THAN NWS OR EVEN THE MOS OFFERINGS SUGGEST. INFACT, THINK THAT THE HIGH ON THURS WILL OCCUR BEFORE SUNRISE WITH COOLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY. HOW MUCH COOLING IS DEPENDNT ON A NUMBER OF THINGS INCLUDING THE TIMING OF THE H5 VORT MAX, PRECIP, AND THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR. THE DEPTH OF THE H5 TROUGH IS CONCERNING AS ARTIC AIR COULD BE PULLED SOUTH AND EVEN THOUGH THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE, THE ARTIC AIR COULD BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA. WILL HOLD ON A DRASTIC DROP IN TEMPS FOR NOW AND WILL LEAVE A STEADY TO SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SPECIAL ATTENTION SHOULD BE PAID TO THE SFC OBS AND SOUNDINGS FROM THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE NEXT 36HRS AS THIS WILL TELL THE STORY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MODELS WILL PROBABLY COOL TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS AS SOUNDING DATA FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA IS FED INTO THE MODELS. AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE GOES... THINK THAT WE WILL SEE SNOW ABOVE 6500' HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING TO MIX OUT ONTO THE PLAINS UNLESS THE UKMET VARIFIES, THEN, SNOW MIGHT HAVE TO BE INTRODUCED OVER EDDY AND LEA COUNTY AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NW PERMIAN BASIN. CONFIDNCE IN THE LATTER ISN'T HIGH ATTM.

KEPT A CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY MORNING BANKING ON THE SLOWER EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER, EVEN AT A SLOWER PACE... A BULK OF THE DYNAMICS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS NOTED. THINK THAT ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE. WENT WITH SUNNY SKIES, WARMER AFTERNOONS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS... SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.



FIRE WEATHER: FIRE DANGER APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA ON TUE AND WED WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. 20' WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE 20MPH AND Td ARE QUESTIONABLE. THUS, RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THINK MAF WILL DO A GOOD JOB WITH THIS, AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR LEAD.
TROPICS: N/A

CLOUD COVER
MON: M/C TUE: S WED: P/C THUR: M/C FRI: D/C SAT: S SUN: S

TEMPS
MON: XX/53 TUE: 49/73 WED: 52/79 THUR: 54/52 FRI: 37/65 SAT: 44/74 SUN: 49/77

MORGAN