Weather Forecast Discussion 10-27-09

FORECAST DISCUSSION:
11:13 AM Oct. 27, 2009


SHORT TERM: LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN MY REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL LOOKING AT FULL SUN TODAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH WARMER TEMPS TODAY. WENT WITH MOSTLY 70'S ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN THE MTNS AND MARFA PLATEAU IN THE U60'S. KEPT BREEZY WORDING AS MOST MSLP PROGS SUGGEST ATLEAST GUSTY WINDS IF NOT HIGHER. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH STRONGER WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN SFC MOISTURE. THINK THAT MOS HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH BOTH MAV AND WRF TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE 50 MARK.

LONG TERM: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND VEER SW IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THINK THAT THE SUN WILL HOLD OUT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING... THIS COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS. STUCK CLOSE TO THE 00ZNAM. HOWEVER, THE 12ZNAM SHOWS IN INCREASE IN MOS DATA. (L80'S). IF THIS TRENDING CONTINUES... EVENING SHIFT MAY WANT TO BUMP HIGH'S UP A NOTCH. HIGH FIRE DANGER ALSO APPEARS LIKELY ATLEAST OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.

THURSDAY STILL LOOKS QUITE ACTIVE... MOST MODELS NOW AGREE ON A H5 SOLUTION KEEPING THE UPPER LOW CLOSED WITH SLOWER PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE.... TIMING ISSUES STILL REMAIN WRT SFC TROUGH/PACIFIC FRONT THAT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG H7 FLOW PROGGED BEHIND THE FRONT... WILL OPT TO GO WITH A FASTER FROPA. STILL THINK THAT STORMS COULD FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDRY. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG UPPER WINDS... STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY RACE OFF TO THE ENE AND STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND LINIAR. HOWEVER, SHOULD A STORM BECOME DISCRETE.. A FAST-MOVING SFC BASED SUPERCELL ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLY THURSDAY... ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN CLOSER TO THE BEST UA DYNAMICS. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH... WINDS FROM THE SFC TO SFC TO 850MB WILL VEER MORE NORTH ALLOWING FOR STRONG CAA. AGAIN... I'M ON THE FENCE AS TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. I FAVOR THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE NW COUNTIES. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE MODELS CONSISTANTLY HAVE BROUGHT IN THE COLDER mP AIR. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12ZNAM IS NOW SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE COLD AIR, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT/ FRIDAY MORNING. IF THIS VARIFIES... COULD SEE WINTER WEATHER IMPACT A LARGER PART OF THE CWA. AS IT STANDS... MOISTURE WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN EAST BY INITIAL FROPA... LEAVING VERY LITTLE TO WORK WITH, SO WILL DOWNPLAY POPS. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW IS OF CONCERN. A WISE METEOROLOGIST ONCE TOLD ME THAT IF A STORM IS STRONG ENOUGH... IT WILL FIND THE MOISTURE. WITH THIS THINKING IN MIND... WILL LEAVE LOW END POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING. TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN. BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT LOCATIONS ABOVE 6000'. AGAIN, ATTENTION SHOULD BE PAID TO THE LATEST NAM WHICH CLOSELY RESEMBLES WHAT THE UKMET WAS KICKING OUT YESTERDAY. TEMPS FROM H85 UP ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS SUCH, SNOW OR ATLEAST A WINTRY MIX APPEARS POSSIBLE. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT NAM MOS SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POPS. WILL CARRY A VERBAL MENTION OF THIS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPS ARE ALSO A CONCERN... MODELS CARRY OV SKIES THUR NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. HOWEVER, SHOULD EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR AND PRECIP DOESN'T PAN OUT... TEMPS COULD EASILY REACH THE FREEZING MARK NORTH OF I-20. THIS TOO SHOULD BE WATCHED AND REGARDLESS OF THE ACTUAL TEMP VARIFICATION... WILL ADVISE RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO TAKE FREEZE PRECAUTIONS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

STORM SYSTEM FINALLY LOOKS TO OPEN UP ON FRIDAY AND A QUICK EJECTION TO THE EAST SHOULD OCCUR. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND WHAT TYPE... WILL MAKE OR BREAK FRIDAYS TEMPS. THINK THAT MOS IS WAY TOO HIGH ATTM. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WELL BELOW MEX AND NWS OFFERINGS. IF THE 12ZNAM IS TO BE BELIEVED... HIGHS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50'S. WILL SETTLE ON LWR 60'S FOR THIS FORECAST, BUT WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED IF THE THE NAM IS ON IT... ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 12ZGFS IS TRENDING COOLER AT H85 TOO.

FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THUS, WARMER TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.



FIRE WEATHER: FIRE DANGER APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA ON WED WITH DRY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT... LOOKING FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS. 20' WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE 20MPH AND Td ARE QUESTIONABLE... ATLEAST OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THUS, RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THINK MAF WILL DO A GOOD JOB WITH THIS, AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR LEAD.

TROPICS: N/A

CLOUD COVER
TUE: S WED: I/C THUR: M/C FRI: D/C SAT: S SUN: S MON: S

TEMPS
TUE: XX/72 WED: 50/78 THUR: 48/53 FRI: 34/63 SAT: 39/74 SUN: 45/75 MON: 47/73

MORGAN